Round Two Preview: The West

So in round one... I got 6 of the 8 picks correct (75%) Not bad considering that trying to pick teams to win at this time of the year is like trying to nail jello to a tree. All you can really do is look at the stats, the history, and your intuition, and hope that you are not completely full of shit. So here we go! Round Two Preview..

Let's start with the West:

(1) Detroit Red Wings VS (6) Colorado Avalanche:

Key Match-up:
Niklas Lidstrom VS Joe Sakic
The best defensman in the NHL against one of the best offensive players this era. This should be a great match-up to see if Lidstrom can shut down Sakic.

Offense:
Detroit's top two lines are pretty damn good (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Draper, Holmstrom) So many Swedes! They were top 3 in the NHL in the regular season in goals/game, compared to Colorado's #15 ranking. However both teams have been fairly even in the post-season in scoring. Colorado also has an impressive line-up featuring Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth, Marek Svatos, and lets not forget Peter Forsberg. I believe Colorado has underachieved this year when it comes to their offense considering all the fire-power they have. Detroit is too deep down the middle.
Edge: Detroit

Defense:
Detroit had the lowest goals against average in the regular season, while Colorado has been stalwart in the playoffs. Anytime your defensive depth chart reads: Niklas Lidstrom, you can't go against him or his team.
Edge: Detroit

Special Teams:
Detroit's powerplay wasn't very good against Nashville, but there's no reason to believe that they can't rebound considering their history of consistency. Colorado got clutch power-play goals at key times against Minnesota, and has a penalty kill in the post season that kills off 85% of power-plays. Too bad Detroit kills off 91%.
Edge: EVEN

Goaltending:
It's still uncertain as to who will start for the Red Wings in the second round, after Hasek struggled against the Predators. Osgood mopped up, and got the series win. On the Avalanche side, Theodore has been great, and is out to prove his Vezina status. It's a battle of has-beens, for two teams that have always enjoyed good goaltending. Detroit's uncertain situation in goal is the final straw.
Edge: Colorado

X- Factor:
Jose Theodore will have to prove he's no fluke if Colorado has any designs on beating the mighty red machine

Verdict:
This is a great rivalry between two perennial Stanley Cup contenders, and a match-up we usually don't see until the West finals. However, Colorado was lucky to make it to the playoffs, and even luckier to make it past the Wild. The Swedes will pick apart the Avs.
Detroit wins in five games


(2) San Jose Sharks VS (5) Dallas Stars

Key Match-Up:
Evgeni Nabokov VS Marty Turco
Both of these goalies are trying to stare down playoff demons, and prove they can win.

Offense:
Dallas beat Anaheim because they were able to roll four lines, and get contributions from unexpected places. Eriksson and Lundqvist were both revelations in the first round series, and will be expected to contribute against the Sharks. San Jose has size, and more skill in their line-up. This should help them to win puck-battles along the boards (which is HUGE in playoff hockey), and get scoring chances. Joe Thorntons line will have to be huge against Dallas.
Edge: San Jose

Defense:
I keep waiting for the young Dallas defensemen to dissapoint me, but they don't. Niskanen, Fistric, and Grossman outplayed a GREAT Anaheim d-corp, and Robidas is easily the MVP for the Stars this post season. It looks like Zubov will play, which is an elephantine addition for the Stars. San Jose has one good puck moving defenseman in Brian Cambell, but Dallas has many.
Edge: Dallas

Special Teams:
The power-play has been huge for the Stars this entire year. The efficiency has helped them to win games they probably shouldn't. Of the remaining teams in the playoffs, Dallas has the best power-play, which offsets their mediocre penalty kill. San Jose had an average power-play against Calgary, and an absolutely atrocious penalty kill (worst in the post season at 72%) On paper, Dallas should pick apart the San Jose penalty kill.
Edge: Dallas (in a big way)

Goaltending:
Both of these goalies have so much pressure to garner post-season success, it should be interesting to see if the pressure gets to any of them. The real question is... after playing over 80 games so far this season, is Nabokov too tired?
Edge: Even

X-Factor:
Steve Ott was able to get Thronton off his game several times during the regular season. Can he do it again when it matters most?

Verdict:
Dallas was able to beat Anaheim in part because the Ducks were so arrogant, and had problems on offense. San Jose knows Dallas can beat them, so I don't anticipate the Sharks to be caught off guard like the Ducks. However, San Jose might be fatigued after playing a grueling seven game series against the Calgary Flames. Dallas will be well rested and ready to go. Like any other series, game one will be crucial, and will probably decide the winner. Dallas had the edge in the regular season, winning the season series. They don't get intimidated at the Shark Tank, which is important. However, I'm going against my better judgement, and my intuition in part because it worked in round one. Sorry Stars, I just don't believe.
San Jose wins in six


East preview comes tommorow

Discuss...

Playoff Preview: The East

This analysis won't be as comprehensive as the Wests because I don't know enough about the conference to make an in-depth analysis. But i'll do my best:

(1) Montreal Canadiens VS (8) Boston Bruins
Bob Gainey is a master architect when it comes to building a hockey team, so to go against one of his teams is a tough task. Boston is the second lowest scoring team in the NHL and are going up against an offense that flows like diarrhea (Montreal has scored more goals than anyone else). Both teams have questionable goaltending heading into the playoffs, with Montreal relying on 20 year old Carey Price. Tim Thomas is the likely starter for the Briuns. This is a guy who has never started an NHL playoff game. Montreal is too good to be taken down in the first roud. Montreal wins in 4

(2)Pittsburgh Penguins VS (7) Ottawa Senators
What a difference a year makes for these two clubs. Less than a year after attending the big dance Ottawa is facing questions from the fans and the media about whether they are a viable contender. They were lucky to make the playoffs, especially when you consider the mess they have in goal. Gerber has been given every chance to be the #1 guy but has not stepped up. Don't even get me started on what a distraction Emery has been. Ottawa bounced the Penguins out of the first round last year, this year Crosby, Malkin, and Hossa are going to have to step up and lead their team to the semi-finals. The only question for Pittsburgh is their goaltending. Pittsburgh in 6

(3) Washington Capitals VS (6) Philadelphia Flyers
Ovechkin will dominate, but a weak Southeast division could spell doom for the Caps Flyers win in 7

(4) New Jersey Devils VS (5) New York Rangers
This is a selfish pick, I just want to see the NHL get good ratings. New York can deliver that. Rangers win in 6

Playoff Preview: The West

(1)Detroit Red Wings VS (8) Nashville Predators

Why the Red Wings Will Win:

Simply put… they are the better team. Detroit has been one of the best teams in the NHL this season. They are 26 games over .500 (by far the best of any team). They are deeper at almost every position (besides goaltending), and they have a tough coach who knows how to win. Having the best defenseman in the NHL doesn’t hurt either.

Why the Red Wings will Lose:

They are relying on a tandem of a 40+ year old goaltender in Hasek, and a has-been, over-rated goalie in Osgood. Both goalies have been very good in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal. Detroit has also been bounced out of the playoffs early in the last few years despite being the overwhelming favorites to win (Calgary anyone?)

Why the Predators will win:

I’m giving Nashville the edge in goal, despite Hasek and Osgood having a Stanley Cup Ring. There is not much debate that it’s harder to be a goalie in Nashville than it is in Detroit. Nashville has also had a playoff mentality since March, and had to go on a bit of a run to make the playoffs, so that could help them to upset a suddenly playoff-fragile Red Wing team.

Why the Predators will lose:

They weren’t even supposed to make the playoffs with the garage sale of players last summer. So to say they are overachieving would be an understatement. They don’t have the depth or experience that Detroit has.

The bottom line:

This match-up is all about will VS skill. If Nashville can shock Detroit and take a few early games, they may be able to upset them. Unfortunately, I don’t see this happening. Detroit in 5

(2) San Jose Sharks VS (7) Calgary Flames

Why the Sharks will win:

This team has been so hot lately. How hot? By the end of February, they were in third place in the Pacific Division, they went on a run, and overtook the Ducks and the Stars to be the division champions. Over their past 22 games, they have only lost twice in regulation. This team is clicking at a scary time. Thornton and Cheechoo have been outstanding since the All-Star break, and Vezina candidate Evgeni Nabokov has been nothing short of sensational despite playing nearly every game this season.

Why the Sharks will lose:

The Stanley Cup is not awarded in March or April, so once the playoffs start, it doesn’t matter how many games they won in the latter part of the season. As good as Nabokov has been, it will be interesting to see if fatigue sets in. He started in 77 of the 82 games in the season. That’s a lot of rubber! This is also a tough match-up for the Sharks, as these two teams play similar styles.

Why the Flames will win:

They have two of the best players in the league in Iginla and Kipurssoff, and recently went to the Stanley Cup finals. They are a solid defensive team with players like Regehr, Aucoin and Warrener, despite being in the middle of the pack in goals against. Calgary also has one of the best playoff atmosphere’s with their “Sea of Red.”

Why the Flames will lose:

Calgary has been disappointing since their trip to the Cup finals in 2004. They underachieved in the past, and it’s uncertain whether fiery Mike Keenan can spark his team to make a long run.

The bottom line:

San Jose is really good. The trade for Cambell was easily the best move at the deadline, as it has payed dividends for the Sharks since then. Calgary has played poorly at home, and mediocre on the road, so finding a win will be hard. This series could come down to special teams, and if that’s the case it could be a problem for Calgary, they rank in the bottom 3^rd of both their power-play and penalty kill, while San Jose has the best penalty kill, and a top ten power-play. However, you can never count out the Flames while they have Iginla and Kippursoff. That being said, Sharks win in 6.

(3) Minnesota Wild VS (6) Colorado Avalanche

Why the Wild will win:

They managed to win the most competitive division in hockey, which is an achievement in itself. They did it on the backs of Marian Gaborik (who has over 40 goals), Brian Rolston (over 30 goals), and their new back-stopper Niklas Backstrom (top 10 in GAA, SV % and wins), who has been sensational as his first full season as the number one goalie. Add to that, that they play in front of rowdy fans at Xcel Energy Center, and have a shrewd, Stanley Cup Champion coach who knows what it takes to win.

Why the Wild will lose:

The seasonal fatigue of competing in the Northwest division could take its toll. Demitra has underachieved, and has been injury prone, so Gaborik is going to have to carry this team. Backstrom has played in five games in the playoffs, and only came away with one win last season, despite posting good numbers.

Why the Avalanche will win:

Can you ever really bet against Sakic and Forseberg? These players know how to raise their level of play when it really matters. Jose Theodore’s resurgence as an elite goaltender is GREAT sign for Colorado. They have the 3^rd most home wins, so they have to take all 3 home games at Pepsi Center to stand a chance.

Why the Avalanche will lose:

This team is getting old, despite rising stars like Wolski and Svatos. Theodore has played well recently, butI’m still skeptical about his abilities come playoff time.

The bottom line:

This series could come down to what most series come down to. Special teams and goaltending. If this is the case then Minnesota will win the series. Colorado has the 3^rd worst power-play, and are 20^th on the penalty kill. Minnesota ranks top ten in both categories. If Colorado can find a way to score first in every game, they have a shot. They have the second best record, only bested by Detroit. In the end though, Minnesota is the better, more balanced team. Verdict: Minnesota in 6

(4) Anaheim Ducks VS (5) Dallas Stars

Why the Ducks will win:

Until someone takes it away from them, they are the defending Stanley Cup Champions. The return of Niedermayer and Selanne has fueled this team to an 8-2-2 run in their final 10 games of the season.They are deep, experienced, and well coached. They are top 10 in nearly every statistical category and have a Conn-Smythe trophy winning goalie in Giguere.

Why the Ducks will lose:

They are arrogant, and play that way. If the Stars find a way to capitalize on their arrogance, it could spell trouble for the Ducks. Anaheim also has to hope that they can flip the “playoff switch” to get to the level they were at last post-season. If they can’t do that, this series could go to seven games in favor of Dallas.

Why the Stars will win:

The players have bought into the, “score by committee” mentality, and most are having career seasons. The ability to roll four lines that can score is definitely an edge that Dallas has over ANY opponent. Consequently, they have significantly improved their offense this season, and have one of the best squads to get into a special teams battle.

Why the Stars will lose:

Dallas has played poorly down the stretch are limped into the playoffs. They managed to win two games in March, after peaking in February. Turco has played poorly this month, and Richards has not contributed like he was expected to. The Stars will be without their best player, Sergei Zubov, for atleast the first round of the playoffs, which means Dallas will be dressing 3 rookie defenseman, against one of the best blue lines in NHL history.

The bottom line:

Whoever wins game one will win the series. If Dallas has any designs on beating the defending Stanley Cup Champs, they have to win game one and get their confidence back. Steve Ott (who I think is the Stars MVP) has to be an x-factor in the series and get the Ducks off their game. Richards, Modano, Lehtinen, Morrow, and Turco will have to stand out and play their best. The young defensemen have to step up and play like veterans. If Dallas does all this… they will win the series in 7 games. However, previous history suggests the Stars won’t do this, hopefully I am proven wrong. Verdict: Ducks in 5

Re-cap:

Detroit in 5

San Jose in 6

Minnesota in 6

Anaheim in 5

Eastern Conference preview will come tomorrow.