Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Eastern Conference Playoff Preview (Round One)

(1) Boston Bruins VS (8) Montreal Canadiens

Offense:
Boston was an offensive juggernaut this year registering the second most goals in the entire NHL (behind Detroit) with 270 goals. Montreal had a statistically average offensive season scoring 242( good for 13th in the league). Additionally, Boston has nine players that have 15 goals or more with seven of those players having 20 or more. Although Montreal has 7 players with 15 or more goals, they are still not as deep as Boston.
Edge: Boston

Defense:
This is where the series will most likely be decided. No team allowed less goals this season than Boston (fueled largely by Tim Thomas), Montreal was 21st overall. Not good enough. Chara is a Norris trophy worthy defenseman, who often dominates games. If he gets going, it is game over for Montreal.
Edge: Boston

Special Teams:
Boston's powerplay scores 23% of the time, everytime... That's good for a top five power-play. Montreal finished with a powerplay around 19%, good for 13th. On the penaly kill, both teams were statistically even killing off 82% of the oppositions powerplays. However Montreal was shorthanded over 20 more times than Boston. That number breaks the special teams tie.
Edge: Boston

Goaltending:
One of the great stories of the NHL has been the rise of Tim Thomas. Statistically, there was not a better goalie than him this year. He posted a mind boggling .933 save percentage and a goals against average of 2.10. The question for Thomas will be whether he can translate that regular season success into playoff success. For Montreal, Price has been unimpressive and inconsistent. He ended 08-09 with a baneful .909 save percentage, and a GAA in the stratosphere (2.83 GAA). You can blame the inconsistency on his age, but he is still not good enough to win this seven game series.
Edge: Boston

Verdict:
The battle between two original six teams should provide for some provocative story lines, but nothing else. Montreal can win if they get a herculean effort out of Price or Halak, and if they can manage to keep the powerful Boston offense at bay. That's not likely to happen given the instability in Montreal (remember when Gainey fired his coach?) This is no contest, especially when you look at the season series between these two teams... Boston took 5 of 6.
Boston wins in four games

(2) Washington Capitals VS (7) New York Rangers

Offense:
When it comes to who has the edge offensively it's not even close. Washington scored almost 70 more goals in the regular season than New York. The Rangers are the only playoff team that ranks in the bottom 8 offensively. That has to be a huge disappointment considering some of the big names in the city that never sleeps.
Edge: Washington

Defense:
This is where there is a glimmer of hope for New York. They might not score many goals, but they don't give many up either. They ranked top ten in least goals allowed, as opposed to the Capitals who officially #11 for most goals allowed. Washington might have their stud Greene, but New York has pretty good defense.
Edge: New York

Special Teams:
It's a tale of two cities when it comes to power-play production for these two teams. Only Detroit has a better powerplay than Washington, and only Columbus has a worse powerplay than New York. so atleast on the powerplay, Washington has the decided edge. However, New York has the best penalty kill where as the Capitals rank in the bottom half in that category.
Edge: Even

Goaltending:
Despite playing for a good team,Capitals goalie Jose Theodore has been unimpressive this season posting a less than stellar 2.87 GAA and a .900 save percentage. His counterpart Henrik Lundqvist has been much better than him boasting a .919 save percentage and 2.43 GAA. Barring a miracle from Theodore, Lundqvist outplays him severely.
Edge: New York

Verdict:
A 2 versus 7 matchup should be no contest, Washington should win. That being said the two most important components to winning a playoff series are special teams and goaltending. No one really has the edge on special teams, and New York has a much better goalie than Washington. So in the end, the fate of the Capitals rests on the shoulders on superstar Alex Ovechkin. If he can carry his team, then they will win, but New York will give them fits.
Washington wins in seven games.

(3) New Jersey Devils VS (6) Carolina Hurricanes

Offense:
These two teams are close when it comes to offense. How close? New Jersey only scored two more goals in the regular season than Carolina. Both teams are fairly even when it comes to talent down the middle.
Edge: Even

Defense:
Again, it's very close. Both teams are top ten in least goals allowed, despite having defensemen that aren't well known.
Edge: Even

Special teams:
Stop me if you have heard this before... It's very close. Both teams rank somewhere around midpack when it comes to powerplay and penalty kill, with no one really having a huge edge.
Edge: Even

Goaltending.
If you ask any GM in the NHL who they would pick to be in goal for their team for a playoff series I guarantee you they would pick Brodeur. He is like Pizza Hut, he delivers. He alone has the ability to completelly steal a series, that is something you cannot say about any other goalie besides maybe Lundqvist. This season he has again been very good, and he will be well rested, which is a scary thought. Statistically these two goalies are dead even. Both Brodeur and Ward have a .916 save percentage and the goals against average only varies by .03. But Brodeur is Brodeur, and he's healthy and well rested.
Edge: New Jersey (Barely)

Verdict:
Picking who is going to win this series is more difficult than trying to open a CD (am I right or what?) I can envision every game going to 2 or 3 overtimes. In the season series, Carolina had the edge winning three of four, but looking at the goal differential it looks like they barely won those three. Carolina has been hot lately winning 8 of their last 10, but I think home ice, and having Brodeur is the tie breaker.
New Jersey wins in seven games.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins VS (5)Philadelphia Flyers

Offense:
This looks to be another close series like the Devils Canes duel. Both teams have scored about the same amount of goals, and have talented forwards. However you cannot ignore the fact that Pittsburgh has been scoring at a torrid pace lately. Since mid March Pittsburgh has scored six goals in a single game five times! The Flyers have not been bad either, but a hot scoring touch + Malkin and Crosby give Pittsburgh a slight edge.
Edge: Pittsburgh

Defense:
Just one goal seperates these two teams in the goals against column, so it is very close. The Penguins outsize the Flyers on the back end though.
Edge: Pittsburgh

Special Teams:
The Flyers have a better powerplay and penalty kill than the Penguins, and quicker defense to move the puck around. Philadelphia has to make sure they don't let Malkin and Crosby run them over on the powerplay.
Edge: Philadelphia

Goaltending:
Neither of these goalies have been spectacular this season. Biron and Fleury have been pedestrian at best, but Fleury did make it to the cup finals last year.
Edge: Even

Verdict:
This should be the best of any of the playoff series. Two hated in-state rivals duking it out to advance to the next round. Keep Crosby and Malkin in check, and Philly wins... but if not the march of the Penguins will move to the second round of the playoffs.
Pittsburgh wins in seven games.

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