Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Western Conference Playoff Preview (Round One)










Offense:
San Jose ranked top ten in goals for, and have the most consistent scoring team in the NHL. They are deep down the middle with guys like Thornton, Marleau, Pavelski, and have a great supporting cast with the emergence of Setoguchi, Michalek and Clowe. They play fast hockey and are able to develop their offense off the rush. Anaheim ranked 14th in goals per game this year, and have their own list of impressive forwards. At the end of the day though San Jose's speed gives them the decided advantage.
Edge: San Jose

Defense:
The Sharks are not only a great scoring team, they have a terrific defense as well. They finished top three in the NHL in least goals given up (behind Boston and Minnesota) and have extremely talented defenseman who can move the puck around quickly. Not to be outdone the ducks have great size in their d-corp. However Anaheim's defensive studs (Pronger, Rob & Scott Niedermayer) are a combined -25. Not good enough.
Edge: San Jose

Special Teams:
Both teams rank top 5 on the powerplay, but vary greatly when it comes to penalty kill. Anaheim has been atrocious this year killing off just 79% of powerplays, while San Jose has been less charitable ranking top 5 in penalty kill %.
Edge: San Jose

Goaltending:
Giguere has battled personal problems this season and will not be in the pipes for the playoffs, giving Jonas Hiller the nod in goal. He has impressive numbers, but he has never been in a playoff series. Nabokov is ready to reclaim the brilliance he had in last years post season and make a run for the cup.
Edge: San Jose

Verdict:
All the pressure is on San Jose to win the cup this year. They have the most talented group of players in the league and can play in any style of game that comes their way. Will they wilt under the pressure to succeed as they have in the past? Only time will tell. But this series reminds me of the Oilers/Stars opening round match-up in 1999. It will be a grueling hard, hard hitting contest that will take its toll on whatever team advances.
San Jose wins in five games








Offense:
Detroit's offense flows like diarrhea compared to the constipated offensive numbers Columbus puts up. The Red Wing offense led by Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Hossa put up almost 70 more goals than Columbus in 08-09 (good for #1 overall). This one is no contest.
Edge: Detroit

Defense:
Any Ken Hitchcock coached team is going to be good defensively, and this group is no different. If they can clog up the middle, and frustrate Detroit's militaristic offense they have a very good shot at winning the series. Detroit may have Lidstrom but they also were in the bottom 3rd in the leauge in goals allowed.
Edge: Columbus

Special Teams:
The best powerplay in the league (Detroit) will be on showcase against the worst (Columbus). Both Columbus and Detroit have unimpressive penalty kill numbers, but given how efficient the Red Wing powerplay is, you'd think Detroit has a huge advantage, especially in a league where special teams are so important.
Edge: Detroit

Goaltending:
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Osgood is the most overrated goalie in hockey. He was mediocre again this year especially when you consider how good his opponent has been. Columbus's Steve Mason has been a revelation this season. The rookie netminder is the primary reason the Blue Jackets are making their first trip to the playoffs posting earth-shattering 10 shut-outs this season. He will HAVE to be a difference maker in the series.
Edge: Columbus

Verdict:
On paper, there is no way Columbus should win this series. They are a team that is making their first trip to the playoffs, trying to fend off the defending Stanley Cup champions. If Columbus has any designs on winning it will have to come down to two things. (1)- Hitchcock has to make the team believe they can win. (2) Mason HAS to be spectacular. There is little room for error for the young Blue Jackets, unfortunately Detroit is Detroit.
Detroit wins in six games








Offense:
Vancouver not only has better numbers than St Louis in this category, but their players have much more experience in playoff hockey. The Sundin twins should skate circles around the scrappy Blues. The Canucks are just too deep and talented to be outdone here.
Edge: Vancouver

Defense:
It would appear as if both teams have been fairly good defensively as they each rank in the top half in goals against, but a closer look at the numbers shows a bit of a different story. Vancouver has five minus players on their roster, while St.Louis has 19! Now obviously the Blues have had injury problems all season long, but having 19 players with a minus rating does not bode well, especially going into the playoffs.
Edge: Vancouver

Special Teams:
St.Louis has better penalty kill and powerplay numbers than Vancouver.
Edge: St.Louis

Goaltending:
Luongo is the Canucks' x-factor. His big frame, and impressive skill allows him to make timely saves and make Vanouver a victor on most nights. Chris Mason is a young promising goaltender, but walking into a Canadian playoff building can mess with your mind. The pressure will be high on both backstops in this series.

Verdict:
To say that the Blues have been red hot lately would be an understatement. For much of the season they were in the Western conference basement only to shock everyone with a playoff berth. They had points in 9 of their last 10 games and look like a dangerous squad right now. However, since Sundin landed in Vancouver they have been a different team. They look hungry, and will be under a mountain of pressure from their fans. I'm predicting the first major upset of the 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs.
St.Louis wins in 6 games








Offense:
Depth down the middle is Calgary's strength. Just look at these names and the numbers they have put up, Iginla (35 goals), Cammalleri (39 goals), Jokinen (29 goals),Langkow (21 goals). Not bad. The Blackhawks will be led by young Toews, Kane who will be making their first foray into the post season. I was compelled to not give anyone the edge here, but if you look at the season series between the two teams, the numbers are too hard to ignore. Chicago outscored Calgary 19-7 in the four games they played this year.
Edge: Chicago

Defense:
Calgary has a lot of injuries on the blue-line and they are facing the likes of Cambell, Keith and Barker. Additionally, Calgary will be leaning on Aucoin, Phaneuf and Leopold on the back end who are a combined -34. Chicago also managed to rank top 5 in goals against despite platooning goalies.
Edge: Chicago

Special Teams:
Lately, Calgary's powerplay has flamed out going 0 for their last 42 powerplay chances. Chicago boasts one of the best puck moving defenseman in Cambell, who will be able to quarter back their effort. However, Calgary also owns a top 5 penalty kill, so it will depend how many penalties Calgary takes.
Edge: Even

Goaltending:
Khabibulin has been very good this year platooning with Huet in net. Unfortunately Kiprusoff has been inconsistent at stretches this year. If he gets going though, he will be a force to deal with.
Edge: Chicago

Verdict:
Can the young, upstart Blackhawks making their first trip to the postseason in ages beat the experienced talented Flames? Can Kane.Toews carry the Hawks to the second round? Can Joel Quenneville and his "Q-Stache" outcoach the empirical Mike Keenan? Plenty if solid story lines to salivate over.
Chicago wins in 7 games.

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